with every minute of delay,we lose any chance for putting down a very heavy load,with any relative gradualness,because with every minute,our force is exhausted
open letter to world leaders
The fate of human civilization is not in humans hands,..it can be calculated with a very high degree of certainty..this is the truth which was often obscured by most of the modern philosophies,as a kind of resisting the inevitable collapse,..but with more of this resistance,the situation had become worse,...the collapse had become more destructive,.. it is the responsibility of all world leaders to stop this resistance,by declaring the truth and letting civilization to fall now,..its fall today will be much better than its fall tomorrow,..there is no excuse depending on the idea that the subject is very hard to study and judge,..the data is here,it was here years ago,we only need enough courage to face the truth
Even the impact of nervous and psychological shocks can be understood on the basis of being heavy strain
Fatigue is a word of wide meaning
include physical and nervous fatigue due to physical causes such as lack of sleep or poor nutrition or excessive effort in the work
it also includes nervous stress resulting from confusion of psychological shocks
Fatigue could also be a cumulative result of lack of sleep or overwork for several days or the result of several successive bad news,....or it may be intensified fatigue as a result of one strong shock.
In all cases,the reason why most people will be killed would be the extreme fatigue,
mental turmoil in itself does not kill whatever was its magnitude unless it result in high Fatigue.
Based on all this,it is clear that there is a thorny problem,
which can be summarized in this question:
when will a person be entitled to assume that the time of the crisis has passes off peacefully??
when will he be sure of the stop of the process of liquidation and the end of the spread of sudden death??
This question is of profound significance,
As long as the cause of death is high fatigue,
and this fatigue is cumulative in nature,
most individuals who will cross the peak time would remain threatened to fall as a result of the accumulated fatigue.
الإجهاد كسبب وحيد للإنتشار الكاسح للموت الفجائى حتى أثر الصدمة النفسية والعصبية يمكن فهمه على أساس كونه إجهاد مكثف فالإجهاد هو كلمة واسعة المعنى تشمل الإجهاد البدنى والعصبى الناتج عن أسباب مادية مثل قلة النوم أو سوء التغذية أو الجهد الزائد فى العمل كما تشمل الإجهاد النفسى والعصبى الناتج عن الحيرة أو الصدمة كما أنه قد يكون تراكمياً نتيجة قلة النوم أو العمل الزائد لعدة أيام أو نتيجة العديد من الأنباء السيئة المتوالية أو قد يكون مكثفاً نتيجة عدم النوم المتصل أو نتيجة نبأ واحد صادم شديد السوء
فى كل الأحوال فإن السبب الذى يقتل الإنسان سيكون هو الإجهاد الشديد فالإضطراب الفكرى فى ذاته لا يقتل مهما بلغت قوته مالم ينتج عنه إجهاد فائق
بناءاً على كل ذلك يتضح أن هناك مشكلة شائكة يمكن تلخيصها فى هذا السؤال متى سيحق للإنسان أن يفترض أن وقت الأزمة قد مر بسلام؟؟؟ اى متى سيزول الخطر وتتوقف عملية التصفية ويتوقف إنتشار الموت الفجائى
هذا السؤال له مغزى عميق فمادام سبب الموت هو الإجهاد الفائق وهذا الإجهاد هو ذو طبيعة تراكمية فإن معظم الأفراد اللذين سيعبرون وقت الذروة سيظلوا مهددين بالسقوط نتيجة الرصيد المتراكم من الإجهاد
No doubt that human life has changed very rapidly during the twentieth century, compared to the rate of change in life during the nineteenth century,...no doubt also,that the pace of change during the nineteenth century was much larger than the speed of change through all stages of the previous civilization, which continued for about ten thousand years.
There is no doubt that the pace of change during the stage of civilization as a whole,was much larger than the pace of change during the last million years, which is human life on Earth.
These facts can be described in simple words as follows: "Man has been in state of primitivety or semi-primitivety for 99,9% of the period of his life on earth, .. and then in the remainingthe ,1%,
rose to very high levels"
In the words of the simplest: "Man has jumped suddenly to the very high level
any surprise occur for any system or any other entity, would lead to a breach of the balance of this entity,and the loss of stability, ... and as far as the size of a surprise, comes the size of the imbalance, .. It is clear from the figures mentioned above, to the surprise of the entity humanitarian, was a huge.
And these can be viewed as a sharp violation of awell-established system lasted for over thousands of years, .. and can be likened to that human being who would change the habits established and the system of life which he has used for a long time,in a very sudden way ,.... this system which was breached will be resisting such a breach,by attracting civilization back to the bottom, to a primitive state, ... and the greater the breach, the greater the amount of force, ie the higher the level of civilization, leading to a sudden collapse of the building of civilization once it loses the power of the dash to the top, .. . and where the crash happens very quickly and with very high altitude,its dash will be huge, it is impossible to return to stability at the level of primitive civilization again, but to the state of disintegration, ie the almost total destruction.
The best example that demonstrates the serious consequences of very rapid growth in light of the restrictions, it is cancer, we must note that cancer is not a bad thing in itself, but the problem lies in the disparity between the speed of development and growth of an entity and the rapid development and growth of the surrounding environment.
In the state of civilization, human thoughts has grown much faster than the speed of evolution of the human body and the natural environment which he lives, and like the case of cancer,the imbalance in the rates of growth and development will leadto the death of the human.
Preferred that the title of this summary to be in this way so we may go to the core idea directly
The prevalence of sudden death in the world, it will be the scenario that would kill most people and lead to the crush of civilization.
Current civilization will not fall by the same traditional causes which dropped earlier civilizations, such as famines, epidemics and wars ,.... For as much as the difference between the current civilization and earlier civilizations, will be the difference in the causes of the fall of each
The reason for the overwhelming prevalence of sudden death is the spread of tension and anxiety,mental disorders and psychological stress resulting from the ongoing persistent attempts to find solutions to the problems facing the human being, without much success
The reason for the fall of most at almost one time is attributable to the fact that communications and information revolution have created a powerful intermediary links and distributes the risk factors mentioned above (such as tension and confusion) are very similar to the law of ----------- where the level of tension and trouble is almost the same for everyone because of the close contact together
This general level of tension is growing continuously and rapidly, and this will get us very soon (months) to the case of the overwhelming prevalence of sudden death
Once this happens the rest of society will reach the psychological collapse
Fearing the same fate or sorrow for the loss of the love ones.
Some people may put hope that some positive factors would intervene to reverse the movement of this infernal circle, but the fact is that the factors that would intervene in the coming months will be the most negative factors, ie, it will lend support to the movement of these deadly circle.
Among these factors, the strong negative, the truth becomes clearer of the failure infront of the world economic problems, which will lead to more loss of confidence and thus more tension and deterioration in mood and general mental state.
This determination is a dramatic consequence of the natural continuation of a long time to ignore the fact that the dangers infront of the human race and the false claim that the human being can overcome these challenges if he would only sharpen his will.
This allegation is completely groundless, human will can not violate the laws and limitations of nature and will not create new technology to no end,Man have already arrivedto the maximum of its ability to create, and challenged the nature, and now came the turn of nature and the natural limitations to respond overwhelmingly
Civilization reached its highest level (as a set of standards) in 2000
It is the year 2000 to 2007, overall deterioration has occurred
but did not report a very high speed but in the year 2008
from March 2009 toApril 2010there was relative stability
But during the last three months (May-June-July) returned the rapid deterioration of the global economy
This was something completely expected
There are ups and downs on the curve
But the general trend is the continuing deterioration and increasing speeds up to completely destroy civilization
Therefore, it is now expected to see a further aggravation of the economic collapse
But we must always remember that the direct cause that would kill most people will not be
Economic collapse but it will be sudden death as a result of mental collapse
The remaining question now is just exactly when the overwhelming proliferation of sudden death will happen and
how long will be the time period of the liquidation process until we reach a situation of stability
in the number of people
As conditions deteriorate at very high rate now,and that this rate will increase rapidly
the spread of sudden death can not be delayed for more than one year
As for the time period for the liquidation process, it is shrinking with every delay
If occurred after a full year,it is expected to be not more than few weeks,
For the population which is expected to stay,unfortunately if2% survive,it is very good
لا شك فى أن حياة الإنسان تغيرت بسرعة كبيرة جداً خلال القرن العشرين,بالمقارنة بسرعة تغير الحياة خلال القرن التاسع عشر,...ولاشك أيضاً,فى أن سرعة التغير خلال القرن التاسع عشر كانت أكبر بكثير من سرعة التغير خلال كل مراحل الحضارة السابقة,والتى إستمرت حوالى عشرة آلآف سنة,....
ولا شك فى أن سرعة التغير أثناء مرحلة الحضارة ككل,كانت أكبر بكثير من سرعة التغير خلال المليون سنة التى هى عمر الإنسان على الأرض.
يمكن وصف هذة الحقائق بكلمات بسيطة كالتالى: "الإنسان ظل فى حالة شبه بدائية لمدة 99,9 % من فترة حياته على الأرض,.. ثم فى ال 1,% الباقية
صعد إلى مستويات عالية جداً",...
وبكلمات أبسط,فإن "الإنسان قد قفز فجأةإلى مستوى عالى جداً".
أى مفاجأة تحدث لأى نظام أو أى كيان,من شأنها أن تؤدى إلى الإخلال بتوازن هذا الكيان,أى فقدانه لحاله الإستقرار,...وبقدر حجم المفاجأة,يأتى حجم الإختلال فى التوازن,..ويتضح من الأرقام السابق ذكرها,أن حجم المفاجأة على الكيان الإنسانى,كان هائلاً
ويمكن النظر إلى هذة المفاجأة على أنها خرق حاد لنظام راسخ إستمر لمدى آلاف السنين,..ويمكن تشبيه ذلك بأنسان يقوم بتغيير عاداته الراسخة ونظام حياته الذى إعتاد عليه طويلاً,بشكل فجائى,....هذا النظام الذى تم إنتهاكه يقاوم هذا الخرق الذى حدث له بما يشبة قوة جذب تجذب الحضارة مرة أخرى إلى أسفل,أى إلى الحالة البدائية,...ويزيد مقدار هذة القوة كلما زاد الخرق,أى كلما إرتفع مستوى الحضارة,مما يؤدى إلى الإنهيار الفجائى للبناء الحضارى بمجرد فقدانه لقوة إندفاعه إلى أعلى,...وحيث أن السقوط يحدث بشكل سريع جداً ومن إرتفاع عالى للغاية,أى بقوة إندفاع كبيرة جداً,فمن المستحيل أن يعود للإستقرار عند مستوى الحضارة البدائية مرة أخرى,بل يتجاوزه إلى حالة التفكك,أى التدمير شبه الكامل
أوضح نموذج يوضح العاقبة الوخيمة للنمو السريع جداً فى ظل القيود,هو مرض السرطان,يجب أن نلاحظ أن السرطان ليس شئ سئ فى ذاته,وإنما المشكلة تكمن فى التفاوت بين سرعة تطور ونمو كيان ما وسرعة تطور ونمو البيئة المحيطة به
فى حالة الحضارة,نما الفكر الإنسانى بسرعة تتجاوز بكثير سرعة تطور الجسد الإنسانى والبيئة الطبيعية التى يعيش فيها,ومثل حالة السرطان سيؤدى هذا الخلل فى سرعات النمو والتطور إلى موت الإنسان
فضلت أن يكون عنوان هذا الملخص بهذا الشكل حتى نذهب إلى الفكرة الجوهرية بشكل مباشر
فالإنتشار الكاسح للموت الفجائى على مستوى العالم, سيكون هو السيناريو الذى سيقتل معظم الناس و يؤدى إلى سحق الحضارة.
فالحضارة الحالية لن تسقط بنفس المسببات التقليدية التى أسقطت الحضارات السابقة,مثل المجاعات والأوبئة والحروب,....فعلى قدر الإختلاف بين الحضارة الحالية والحضارات السابقة,سيأتى الإختلاف فى مسببات سقوط كل منهما
أما سبب الإنتشار الكاسح للموت الفجائى فهو إنتشار التوتر والقلق والإضطرابات الفكرية والنفسية والإجهاد الناتج عن المحاولات الحثيثة المستمرة لايجاد حلول للمشكلات التى تواجه الإنسان حالياً, وبدون جدوى تذكر
أما سبب سقوط الجميع فى وقت واحد تقريباً فيرجع إلى حقيقة أن ثورة الإتصالات والمعلومات خلقت وسيط قوى جداًينقل ويوزع عوامل الخطر السابق ذكرها(مثل التوتر والإضطراب) بصورة شبيهة جداً بقانون الأوانى المستطرقة حيث يتساوى مستوى التوتر والإضطراب عند الجميع تقريباً نتيجة إتصالهم القوى معاً
هذا المستوى العام من التوتر يتزايد بإستمرار وبشكل متسارع,وهذا سيجعلنا نصل فى وقت قريب جداً(شهور) إلى حالة الإنتشار الكاسح للموت الفجائى
وبمجرد حدوث ذلك سينهار نفسياً باقى أفراد المجتمع
خوفاً من نفس المصير أو حزناً على من فٌقد
قد يضع بعض الناس الأمل فى أن تتدخل عوامل إيجابية فتؤدى إلى عكس حركة هذة الدائرة الجهنمية,ولكن الواقع أن العوامل التى ستتدخل خلال الشهور القادمة ستكون عوامل معظمها سلبى,أى أنها ستؤدى إلى دعم حركة هذة الدائرة القاتلة.
من ضمن هذة العوامل السلبية القوية,إتضاح حقيقة فشل العالم أمام المشاكل الإقتصادية,وهو ما سيؤدى إلى مزيدن فقدان الثقة وبالتالى المزيد من التوتر والتدهور فى الحالة النفسية و العقلية العامة.
هذا المصير الدرامى هو العاقبة الطبيعية للإستمرار طويلاً فى تجاهل حقيقة حجم الأخطار التى الجنس البشرى والإدعاء الكاذب بأن الإنسان قادر على التغلب على هذة التحديات لو أنه فقط شحذ ما لديه من إرادة,
فهذا الإدعاء باطل تماماً,فالإرادة الإنسانية لايمكن أن تخرق قوانين وقيود الطبيعة ولن تخلق تكنولوجيا جديدة إلى ما لا نهاية,فلقد وصل الإنسان بالفعل إلى الحدود القصوى لقدرته على الخلق وتحدى الطبيعة بإرادته,وجاء الآن دور الطبيعة والقيود الطبيعية لتقوم بردها الساحق
بلغت الحضارة أعلى مستوى(حسب مجموعة من المعايير) سنة ٢٠٠٠
ومن سنة ٢٠٠٠ إلى سنة ٢٠٠٧ حدث تدهور شامل
ولكنه لم يبلغ سرعة عالية جداً إلا سنة ٢٠٠٨
ومن مارس ٢٠٠٩ حى أبريل ٢٠١٠ كان هناك إستقرار نسبى
ولكن خلال الثلاثة شهور الماضية(مايو-يونيو-يوليو) عاد التدهور السريع للإقتصاد العالمى
كان هذا أمر متوقع تماماً
فهناك تعرجات على المنحنى
ولكن الإتجاه العام هو إستمرار التدهور وبسرعات متزايدة حتى يدمر الحضارة تماماً
لذلك فمن المتوقع الآن أن نشهد المزيد من تفاقم الإنهيار الإقتصادى
ولكن يجب أن نتذكر دائماً أن السبب المباشر الذى سيقتل معظم الناس لن يكون
الإنهيار الإقتصادى بل الموت الفجائى نتيجة الإجهاد المتراكم والإضطراب الفكرى
السؤال الباقى الآن هو فقطمتى بالضبط سيحدث الإنتشار الكاسح للموت الفجائى
وما هى الفترة الزمنية التى ستستغرقها عملية التصفية حتى نصل إلى حالة من الإستقرار
فى عدد السكان
نظراً لأن الأحوال تتدهور بمعدل عالى جداً الآن يالإضافة إلى أن هذا المعدل سوف يزيد بسرعة
إذاً فموعد إنتشار الموت الفجائى لن يتأخر عن سنة واحدة
أما بالنسبة للفترة الزمنية التى ستستغرقها عملية التصفية فهى تنكمش كلما تأخر الموعد
فلو حدثت بعد سنة كاملة فمن المتوقع ألا تزيد عن أسابيع قليلة
وبالنسبة لعدد السكان المتوقع بقاؤه فللأسف سيكون نجاة٢% شئ طيب للغاية
I shall be writing about wise optimism,not daydreaming,...optimism based upon facing the facts even when they are very hard,..it is logical that every negative event has its positive side,...many people will suffer and die,but some will enjoy a new life of freedom,..freedom in its very deep form,..freedom of the mind,...this will make it up to them for their great losses that they have to bear in their materialistic conditions,..but the sun will not rise at once,it will take some time. the best example to describe your feelings when you decide to face the facts now,is a tunnel,..a tunnel of depression. in a certain moment darkness will be all around you,..behind you and in front of you,...all the things that used to give you motivation for keeping on living will vanish,and you will not be seeing any other alternative motivations in the future,...but this moment is very short,..if you can survive it,you will begin to see a dim light at the other end of this tunnel. it is a new birth of life inside you,..new kinds of motivations for life will begin to be created with every day that passes,and with every step that you will take toward the other end of the tunnel,..just keep on going,..things will get better quickly,darkness will begin to vanish,and more light will be seen. after some time you will not only restore the usual power of motivations toward life,that you had,but you will reach levels of deep satisfaction that you never reached before,because this time motivations will be pure and honest,not like the case which people had before the collapse,where happiness was always incomplete because of the deep concerns of the dangers that surrounded them,..you will,for the first time in your life,feel the deep feeling of safety,stability,and peace. you only have to pass the tunnel,..the short moment of feeling that you are completely lost,..nearly all the links with the past will be cut at once,and no new links with the future are created yet,...just be patient,..quickly new links with the new future will begin to exist,..they will be weak and fragile in the beginning but they will gain strength with every new day
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It was the spring of the year 2010,when I went to visit an old friend of mine, living in the country side,..I was in great need of this kind of rest,..I had worked so much in the recent months so that I was nearly isolated from the society,..I thought it was a good idea to spend some days with Bill at his big country side house. Bill was a very friendly person,he welcomed me warmly,then he lead me to the room where I would stay during my visit,.."take some rest from the trip,then join me at dinner time,..I have lot to tell you about"..Bill said. I lay down on the bed,closed my eyes,..the place was very quite and peaceful,..I was very relaxed,and felt as if I was out of space and time. I felt asleep immediately,..I wake up after about two hours,..went down stairs to the living room,..Bill was reading a book,he smiled when he saw me and said:"welcome my dear friend,I can not express how much I am glad to have you with me these days,..you came just in time,I was in need of some one as smart as you to discuss a subject of great importance,..but let us first have something to eat",...after we ate,..we sat in the living room on two very comfortable chairs,drinking tea and smoking,..then Bill stood up and went to another room,..after a minute he came back with lot of papers in his hands,..."these are some of my papers,..I was doing a serious research during the last couple of years,...I believe that after few days,the world will see three dark days,that will end human civilization for ever !!". I was taken by his words,....I always knew Bill as an intelligent,reasonable person,..I couldn't say a word,...Bill looked at me and smiled,.."I know what you are thinking about,but don't worry,...I do not mean three dark days in the literal meaning,..I just mean,the worst three days in human history". I took a deep breath and said,.." and what makes you believe in that?" Bill said:"I just told you,I was studying the subject for years now". I said:"ok,but what do you think will happen during these three dark days?" he said:"only one simple thing,..a huge spread of sudden death among most people on this planet!!" I looked at him not knowing what to say,..it was clear to me that he was under some kind delusive idea,..but I tried to put things back to logic,..so I asked him:"and what will be the cause of that?" he said:"there will be NO obvious cause,and this what will make it more terrifying" I said:"but of course there will be a cause" Bill said:"of course my friend,..or are you still thinking that I am out of my mind?" I said:"to be frank,all this sounds very strange,..but I want to hear you first,..you probably made some kind of a logical mistake which led you to all these strange conclusions" Bill smiled and said:"that's good enough for me as a start" we discussed the subject for about an hour,..he told me some reasonable ideas,but I was not convinced yet,..I believed there must be a logical mistake in what he said,and I intended to find this mistake. The next morning we had a walk in his farms,..he didn't open the subject but I did,..I said:"I had lot of thinking about what you said yesterday,..and I still believe there is a mistake" he said:"that's ok,..I didn't expect you to accept this terrifying ideas from the first conversation,..we shall continue our conversation in the evening". in the evening we had our two comfortable seats with two cups of tea like the day before,..Bill gave me a paper and said:"it will be helpful if we write down the main points of my idea,..you can then tell me which one of them you find unreasonable",..I agreed with him,..so he said:"fine,..then write number one,...The environmental dangers can destroy civilization and kill most people with in twenty or thirty years,...two,..our knowledge of this fate will cause an economic collapse that would destroy civilization in two or three years,...three,..our knowledge of the fact that civilization will collapse within two or three years will cause an immediate panic which will make the collapse happen within months,..four,..",...I then told him:" wait one second,...those who will be able to think this way will only be the very intellectual persons,and they are few,..so this fate will not be known for the majority of people,therefore no panic will happen,simply because most people will not know" he smiled and said:"you are right,..but if the intellectuals did not pass the information they know to the majority,it will be a kind of betrayal,and will creat a new threat,which is the loss of trust that will occur when the next stage of the collapse begin to happen,..for example,..if the intellectuals denied the possibility of the collapse the economy within two years as the result of the environmental dangers,..it will keep the economy going for some months,but once this idea becomes clearer and easier to be understood,it will reach the public causing an additional destructive force,which is the complete loss of confidence in the intellectuals,..people will no more trust their leaders nor scientists nor writers,..this is the exact cause of the wide spread of confusion and superstitions all around the world these days,...this is the real situation of the world right now,complete loss of confidence and false ideas,..where do you think this will lead us?" I said:"maybe with some time people will regain there confidence in the intellectuals" Bill replied:"regaining the confidence after a betrayal is not an easy thing to happen,it will simply need long time,..but the quicker thing that would result is that these superstitions will lead to more deterioration in the mentality level of the public,..these days it is easy to observe,people talking about very strange ideas" although I was away from the society for some months now,I couldn't but agree with this idea,..but I also said:"ok,but this deterioration of the mentality level will happen to all people" Bill said:"this terrible aggregation is the simple result of the very powerful system of communications and information which we built during the last decades,...this strong system creates an equilibrium in the ideas and mental state of most people all around the world,..it makes every one on this planet,almost have the same information in the same time,..nearly all the minds around the world are now connected in what is like a huge global mind,..so,this collective state is not a strange thing now,in fact we are almost talking about one huge collective mind" "you can't say that every one is thinking in the same way others do"..I said,.. "of course there are exceptions,and there are differences,..but these exceptions are not so many,..and these differences are not in the essential ideas,like the loss of confidence and the dangers that are threatening our civilization" "we are still talking about the collective mental collapse not the collective death"..I said Bill replied:"it is obvious that a very strong shock or mental collapse can kill a person,,therefore a very strong collective mental collapse will lead to a collective death" I kept silent for some minutes,then I asked him:"but how can you determine the time of this mental collapse,..how can you know that it is after few days only?" Bill said:"I still don't know the exact date,but the mental reactions happen so quickly,..the deterioration of the mind could even happen in few hours" I was silent again,...I couldn't find where was his mistake,...but I was still sure there was one. when I went back to my room,I kept thinking about what he said,..I insisted on finding the logical mistake before I fall asleep,..but I couldn't. next morning I wake up with the same ideas in my mind,..and for the first time I asked myself:"what if Bill was correct?!"..the idea was terrifying,..I felt depressed immediately,...there was no escape,I had to find the mistake today or else this negative feelings would drown me
The 2012 issue is just the way by which simple minded people express their feelings of lack of safety and their deep beliefs that our civilization is under serious threats,...they can not digest complicated theories and philosophies,so they adopt Myths instead of them.
They didn't get these beliefs from the Maya calender,but from the daily news and the corrupt systems they deal with in their daily life,..that's why it is in vain,all the efforts which are made now to convince people that there will be no serious earthquakes and asteroids hitting the earth in 2012,because this is not what really makes them worried. Without facing the real issue which is the threats upon human civilization(no matter the dates or the causes are),..no one will be able to prevent the Myth of 2012 from spreading more and more every day
Last week I wrote a summary,..its main idea was:"If it was ascertained that a huge meteorite will hit the earth after twenty years,Civilization will collapse right now",....just now I realized that...if the rumor of 2012 would spread a step farther,it will gain enough strength to destroy our highly fragile civilization,immediately,without needing to wait till 2012. if someone tells you that he believes that a catastrophe will happen in 2012,just ask him:"and what do you think people will do now?",...he will probably tell you that some will quit their jobs,some will sell their stocks,...etc,...panic will spread so fast and the economy will collapse immediately,...so, we are not talking about waiting till 2012. This is exactly what I was warning of,...the suppression of the logical ideas will only mean the rise of superstitions,..it is obvious that no one can stop this rumor now,or even slow its spread,...yesterday I read some blogs of some very intelligent persons,I was surprised how they are mixing the scientific facts with Myths,..I realized then that thing are already out of control,..these people are very influential,..the spread will be so quick. This was our choice,..now we have to bear the consequences
It is very justified to wonder about the Usefulness of writing now,when most people had stopped reading,or at least stopped reading serious subjects,...most people now find it very hard to read or hear about more bad news,they nearly stopped thinking about any serious matter,..of course this can be seen as a kind of an early sign of mental collapse,which matches my expectations,..but what avail would we see in writing now? and how can we expect that this kind of serious subjects will spread more and more every day? Let us start by mentioning the most characteristic thing in science,..it is the collective acceptance of its laws and its knowledge,...chemistry in Japan is the same chemistry in America,..Physics in Egypt is the same Physics in Germany,...this is because science is built on very solid logic,and the good logic is the real collective language for all human kind,...for the same reason,we can also say that the good logic is not only the collective language between different societies and cultures,but also between different persons,whatever was their degree of culture or intelligence or experience,...we can even say that it is the only common language between persons whatever was the difference in their degree of sanity,...this might seen strange,but the truth is that no one loses his mind completely,whatever was his stage of insanity,..the mind will always has one language,..it is a great mistake to assume that mad people have their own kind of logic,..the problem is that their mind is busy with delusive ideas which prevent them from listening to what you are saying,...but that does not bring us back to the assumption that writing is useless,..that would be true if you were talking to a restricted society,...and this brings us to understand the real power of the internet,...the internet is the most accurate tool for measuring how good your logic is,..when you put an idea on the net,you will get what is like a voting or a polling from all over the world on the degree of fidelity in your idea,...the most important point here,is that this voting represents what would be real common between all humans,...people deeply understand this,and when they observe your success in this voting they will pay more attention to what you are saying,consequently your idea will spread more,...I would surely prefer to gain very partial global attention,than to gain the full attention of a restricted society,..the first option is what really measures the validity of our ideas,and is what really has the potential to grow. For these reasons,I am completely sure that the right logic will spread more every day,...but the danger is that it may not be quick enough to reach so many people in time,to save them the pains of facing the truth in reality,without preparing their minds for it
this is a translation of part of my Arabic book which I wrote a year ago:In 1997, I managed to get a copy of the book "Limits to Growth", which was published in 1972, ...I knew the basic ideas contained in this book, by reading about it in previous years, .. but there was a very important idea,which I didn't expect to find it there,...the idea did not receive the attention it deserves ,...it a warning from the authors (mostly technical scientists),from putting hope that the technological advances that can come in the future,may resolve the serious problems threatening the world.Perhaps the reasons behind the neglect of this very important idea,were two reasons, ... First, it is a terrifying idea, .. all the hopes of saving civilization, centered on the ability of new technology to do the job, ... and the second reason is that the Club of Rome (the group who issued a book),did not give strong evidence to confirming it.This idea is one of the most difficult philosophical questions,and it is central to the issue of the collapse of modern civilization ... probably the Club of Rome based their expectations on some simple assumptions, such as, the probability of failure to achieve the saving technological developments,in time, given the expected imminence of the collapse, ... but if we wanted this idea to be established on strong theoretical bases, it is inevitable to go into the depths of philosophy.I do not want to go, in this book, in the depth of this difficult subject, ... but I will try to simplify the idea, so that the interested reader, would find the basis for researches.Technology is the application of the laws of the theory in science, .. and therefore, if we want to answer the question: "What are the limits of technology ?",.. we must first answer the question:" What are the limits of science? ".Scientists in the field of theoretical physicists were trying,for many decades,to reach a theory they call ,..." theory of all forces".. or " theory of everything ",...one of the famous scientists known for their dedication to this attempt,was Albert Einstein,...these attempts means implicitly assume that there are limits to the theoretical knowledge, ... but theoretical physicists,did not often depend on philosophical basis to support this trend,and most of these attempts were established only on the personal perceptions of the possibility of achieving this ambitious goal, ...these attempts remain incomplete, .. and the history of science gives us examples of the stages of previous science, where scientists thought they had already reached these final limits of science,maybe the most famous of these historical stages was the stage in the end of the nineteenth century, after Max well's theory of the electromagnetic waves, and before the explosion of the ideas of quantum and relativity,at the beginning of the twentieth century.But philosophical thinking takes another course, ...the Dialectical materialism of the Marxism confirms that there are no limits to science, ..and in this trend it is followed by most modern philosophies.It is very important to note that the introduction of the idea of infinite knowledge,in fact, does not solve the problem of an imminent collapse of civilization,but only puts it in a different form, ... The saving technological achievements,which are still needed very soon,if brought in tremendous intensity,the result will be that the question will change from "the collapse of civilization" ... to "the collapse of the image that we know,or that we can imagine for civilization",...and this result does not differ,in fact, from the previous one,as it,in both cases,all things related to our current life,will end,.....the validity of this result,was approved by the American thinker Francis Fukuyama,in 1993,..the credit for the courage,where the idea was incompatible with his famous idea of the "end of history", which was in the height of popularity at that time.On the other hand, the adoption of the idea of limited knowledge,certainly,settle the issue in favor of the idea of the collapse of civilization
When I was young,I use to think and read a lot about philosophy,..my family and friends often advice me to stop this,...they use to say that philosophy is useless,and harmful,and that I was too young for this kind of thinking,and that it may even drive me crazy,....it was obvious to me that thinking too much about philosophical questions is very painful,and you rarely come out with some satisfying answers,...but it was also clear to me that philosophy is the bases of all other ideas,and it is very logical to build this bases properly before building all other kinds of knowledge,..I wanted to learn lot about many things,but I knew that without having strong philosophical bases for my knowledge,it will always be weak. I also realized something very important,..I looked at these philosophical questions as a duty every person has to accomplished some day,..I believed that every person has this kind of mission that has to be fulfilled some day during his life,..it was also clear to me that refusing to work on this duty early,will make it harder and more painful,because you will build things in your life that would have wrong bases,and the wrong idea always bring more wrong ideas,....beside,..doing the hard work in the time you chose,and giving it enough time to be completed,will make the duty less painful. But what if you kept delaying this work,escaping from its pains,thinking that it is not a necessary thing that you have to do? we all know how a person begin to think a lot about philosophical questions when he gets older or being close to death for any reason,..many old persons have depression for this reason,...we can all imagine how a person would feel if he was told that he ill by cancer,for example,...this would be more painful than the depression of the old age because it came suddenly. this is our case today,..modern civilization neglected its basic duty,..people put all their effort in building more technology to enjoy their lives,..they forgot that they have to come back some day and face the basic philosophical questions,..some even said that philosophy has died,..now we will have to face all the questions at once,in a very painful way,..in a way that will simply cripple our lives,destroying our civilization in a very short period of time
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with every minute of delay,we lose any chance for putting down a very heavy load,with any relative gradualness,because with every minute,our force is exhausted
the main idea of my perfect summary is that:"If it was ascertained that a huge meteorite will hit the earth after twenty years, Civilization will collapse right now",...the first clear point here is that the initial cause of the collapse,which is the meteorite,will not be the direct cause for the collapse,....in fact,all the environmental dangers,like the global warming,the biological diversity,the exhaustion of resources...etc.,are only the initial causes of the collapse
the second clear point is that the initial cause will ignite the fuse of another quicker and more destructive danger,..in the example of the meteorite,it is expected the news will cause an immediate economic depression,which in itself, can cause the destruction of civilization within two or three years,...but this new cause(the economic collapse)will be just an initial cause for another quicker and more destructive danger,and so on,till we reach the direct cause that will actually kill most people
the third clear point is that,as I wrote in a past article:"The Mechanisms of collapse",about the main rule:THE REMOTE CAUSES UNFOLD FIRST,..we can see that we first knew about the remote danger,which is the meteorite,or the environmental dangers,..then we become aware of the nearer and the more destructive danger,which is the economic collapse,...and then we became aware of the mental danger,which will be much quicker and much destructive than the economic or the political causes
now, with these mechanisms becoming clear,we have to conclude that there are different degrees of the mental danger,....there are the remote,or long term mental dangers,..like depression,confusion,..etc.,this kind can only be a killer if it lasted for very long time,..there are also the medium mental dangers,...like neurosis and mental disorders,..this kind needs a moderate period of time to be a killer,..but it is more destructive than the first kind,...also there are the acute ,intensive mental dangers,..like a strong mental shock that can kill immediately if it comes with enough strength,..this kind will be terribly destructive,to a degree that might leave only few people alive
of course some people will die from the longer term mental dangers,..we would even see people dieing now from economic hardship or even environmental dangers,and we would observe a wide spread of depression and confusion after last year's economic collapse,and this of course is causing some death cases,......but the question is: what will be the main cause of death for the majority of people? .....it is becoming more clear every day that we still have only two choices,..the medium mental dangers,and the intensive,acute mental dangers,...what will decide our fate is our reaction during the next few weeks,..if we went on denying the facts,our fate will be the most severe kind of mental collapse
any change in any system could be occasional or well-established,..a collapse,as a sharp change in a system,could be occasional or well-established,...a good example of an occasional collapse is when a young person falls ill,..and a good example of a well-established collapse is when an old person falls ill,...the difference here is clear,..the general health of a young person is much better than the general state of health of an old person. civilization could have collapsed during the twentieth century if a strong accident would have happened,for example,if a meteoroid would have hit the earth,..but this early collapse of civilization would have been an accidental one,..it is true that it will bring the peak of civilization earlier,and this peak would have been much humble than the level we already reached,..but the process of collapsing would have been very much more gradual,..not only because we would have fallen from a less height,but also because it was an accidental collapse,meaning that the general conditions of civilization were still sound,..the course that the curve will take will be less smooth,..there will be many upward trends,before reaching the complete disintegration,..the passing of time without any accidental destructive event means that we lost the opportunity of these upward trends during the collapsing process,the curve will be so smooth,..it will be a one way course. in the recent years,world leaders and other responsible persons,were handling all the problems with very high sensitivity,..they know how sensitive the situation is,so they did their best to avoid any accidental destructive event,...but by doing this,they choose to make the collapse very well-established. now,people are still choosing more resistance,..every day that passes now is making the collapse more deep-rooted,...it has to be noted that one day of delay would not make a big difference few years ago,but now,every one day of delay has huge consequences. personally,I do not like hesitation,I prefer thing to be very well-established,..this makes planning more easier and clearer,..my plans now are becoming simpler and clearer because of the delay of the timing of the collapse,...but there is another and more important personal interest in this delay,..it might seem that it is more beneficial for me to have an early collapse,..but this is not true at all,..every person has his own weak points and strong points,..more delay is in the interest of a person who has some mental advantages,because with every day of delay,the collapse is becoming purely mental,..this will not be in the interest of most people,..I urge people for an early collapse,only to make my conscience clear
After a long working day,David sat at his computer,with a big cup of tea,browsing the internet,..he found another site talking about the near end of the world,...he kept reading for about half an hour,...."damn,this one is strong",..he told himself.."but no way,..I will never go back to this kind of crazy ideas",...he moved his chair away from the computer and lit a cigarette,..he looked through the window with this kind of very far look,..during the last couple of years,you would often find David looking for more of this crazy stuff,..but this would not last for long,..he would quickly reminds himself with the advice he use to get from his friends,...he remembered his friend Tony telling him:"how can you imagine that this huge civilization can collapse completely in few months??..it is certainly too huge for that",..that was reasonable,..then he remembered Mark telling him:"no one can predict the future",..that was reasonable too,...he took a deep breath and went to get more tea,...he was back on the same seat after few minutes,but he was annoyed once more,...what his two friends said,still seem very reasonable,but how can they both be right?!! ...Mark told him that we can not know,...which means that if the collapse happens,it will come as a surprise,...but this means that it will not be gradual as Tony said ! he lit another cigarette,...he kept thinking and remembering different opinions which he heard from his friends,...he couldn't move from his chair for more than one hour,..then he told himself:"I am not a philosopher,..but I only know one thing for sure,..I won't let these ideas cripple my life". David was not completely satisfied with his conclusion but it was hard for him to waste more of his time and effort on this kind of useless ideas,..he went back to his normal life,trying to forget all about this subject,...but after two weeks,while he was sitting in a nice garden,enjoying his weekend,he remembered the subject again,...he couldn't stop his mind from thinking about it,..he told himself:"it is more reasonable to accept Tony's idea,..this huge civilization can not just vanish in few months,if the collapse would happen,it has to take at least ten years,...so,it will be wiser to forget all about this subject and go on with my life as usual,...yes,..if the collapse of civilization has to happen,it will be very gradual,...it may even take 30 years,..it would be completely insane to bother myself with something that may or may not happen after 30 years",....he was satisfied with this conclusion for some minutes,..but then,another idea came to his mind,...he was trying to imagine how would life be like during these ten or 30 years,...he told himself:"it will probably be the same kind of life we always lived",but then he realized the problem,..if life continued in about the same manner for the ten years that means that the collapse will not happen gradually!! "maybe life will change a little bit",he told him self,...but this didn't solve the problem,..it will only make the collapse a little bit less sudden,...."or maybe there will be some significant changes during these ten years",he told himself,...but then he realized:"if the collapse would happen in 10 years,then we have to lose 10% of our civilization every year",..this seemed reasonable enough for him,...but when he tried to imagine how life will be if civilization loses 10% in one year,...he found it a scary idea,..."well,I guess it is not ten years,..it will probably be 30,and we will have to lose only 3.3% of our civilization every year",...that seemed more acceptable,...but yet,it was depressing. the idea put David in a bad mood for the next few weeks,...he began to feel really depressed,when he told himself one day:"if I didn't adopt a more optimistic point of view,this depressing feelings will cripple my life",..then he realized that this is not his own personal problem,this is probably how most people will feel when they realize this conclusive ideas about the collapse of civilization,...but if that was the case,this negative feeling would cripple others lives too,which will lead to a quicker collapse than he calculated,...his assumption of the 30 years was based upon a normal mental condition for most people,....but now,this does not seem to be very accurate,..but the real problem was that if he make a new assumption of a period of time less than 30 years,he will become more depressed,and so will be most people,and consequently he will have to shorten the period again! ...this was a real problem!! "well,maybe I was still pessimistic after all,and we still have a full 100 years to go",David told himself,.."yes,..and we will only lose 1% of our civilization every year,...that would not be depressing,...it won't be even sad,...it will be..just..boring!!...damn!". the end
I would like to suggest a contest in writing the best summary which proves that the complete collapse of civilization is very near,..this summary has to meet three conditions 1)to be very short 2)to be very easy 3)to be very convincing
anyone may send his summary as a comment here,or by the email: magdyhalim45@yahoo.com I will put the best three summaries in a post on this blog in 31 March I will also be one of the contestants,..I already began writing my perfect summary,.. here is a hint about it(but do not cheat!)
1)The end of human civilization is inevitable,..in practical life,nothing goes up,nothing grows,without going down and collapsing,some day,.. everything which has a beginning,must has an end,...human civilization began about ten thousand years ago,...it never existed before that,..so it must has an end,that it will never exist after it,..therefore,the question is only about the timing of this collapse and how destructive it will be.
2)the existence of the resistance is a complete proof of the existence of an opposite force with the same strength,..therefore,the existence of very strong resistance is enough proof that the collapse is very near,and will be very sharp,..we can know how heavy the the weight in the hands of an athlete is,from the way he is trembling,..we can know how ill a person is,from the degree of his fever and the strength of his pain,..and we can know how dangerous a situation is from the way people react toward it.
3)the very strong resistance can be easily observed around us,..just try to open the subject of the near collapse of civilization in front of someone and see how tense and irritated he will become,and yet,he will deny any truth in this idea,..only the truth makes people deeply concerned,..and this denial is a very strong resistance to avoid the pain of facing the truth,..if the threats were moderate,people would have reacted differently,..they would have shown some concern,but this complete freezing,is a stunning proof that the dangers are huge,...this state of deep horror is not temporal nor occasional,..it lasted as far as we can detect it,and is gaining strength with time
A year ago,in my Arabic book,I wrote what could be translated as follows : it is very important to identify the direct cause that will kill most people,because this danger is logically the most important,..here we find some kind of a law,..THE REMOTE CAUSES UNFOLD FIRST,..for example,we were thinking about the astronomical dangers,like the contraction of the universe,or the fade of the sun,or a hit from meteoroid,before the mid of the twentieth century,..later,near the end of the century we were concerned more about the environmental dangers,like the Global warming and the energy shortage,...but when the dangers of a global economic collapse and the global terrorism began to unfold,our concerns shifted more toward them,simply because it was easy to understand that the global economic collapse or the spread of global terrorism are capable of destroying our civilization immediately,without needing to wait for the environmental dangers to do the job,..but the question is,why does the remote dangers unfold first?? the answer is simple,..the remote dangers are less periodic,..meaning that their periods are less frequent,...and this makes them easier for observation. now,let us examine the mechanism which happens when a certain danger unfolds,..this elementary danger ignites the fuse of another more periodic,quicker,and more destructive danger,..and the new danger will do the same after some time,...till we come to the direct cause that will do the killing,...it is more logical to expect that the economic collapse would be the direct cause of massive death,than the shortage of fuel,for example,in spite the fact that concerns about peak oil was one of the main reasons which ignited the economic collapse in the first place. the question now is,..will the economic collapse ignite the fuse of a quicker and more destructive danger?? there are lot of warnings about a global political unrest if the economic collapse was to continue,..this is very logical conclusion,...but because of the strong precautions against any political unrest,this scenario probably won't materialize,..but for sure,the economic threats ignited the fuse of wide awareness of the probability of a global collapse. as I explained,..the recent dangers to unfold are the quicker in their destruction,..this is why the collapse takes its accelerating course,..if the clear understanding and awareness of the collapse spread to a certain degree, it will ignite the fuse of rumors and partial understanding,and this phase will be quicker and much more destructive,...at this point,I want to clarify what I mentioned in a past post on my blog,..I said that the spread of the state of doubt is slower than the spread of the state of complete awareness,because the person who reached the state of complete awareness tends more to tell others about it,..but if these declarations were to be suppressed(resistance),..the result will be a relatively slow spread of complete awareness,but the accelerating course will be continued with another quicker phase of partial understanding,doubts and rumors,..by this sequence,we will quickly reach a killer degree of mental confusion,..this will be the direct cause of our collapse,..a cause that really suits our extremely superior modern civilization
one of the main reasons that makes people ignore all the warnings about the near collapse of civilization,is that they can not imagine what could be worse than our current situation,...for example,when we urge world leaders to declare the truth about the collapse,they will know that this declaration will fuel the collapse in a very terrifying speed,so,they simply ignore the idea because they can not imagine what could be worse than that,...but with more precise thinking,we would see that the declaration means a complete conscious awareness and understanding of this tragic event,..its causes,its limits,...to what degree can we blame any one for it,..etc. ,...and this situation is less shocking and will cause less destruction than the situation of the lack of understanding,confusion,and mutilated information and ideas,....this exactly will be the situation with more resistance for declaring the complete truth immediately. for every absent piece of information there will be a rumor,and with every absent logical idea there will be a superstition one,...those who deeply embrace the principles of free ideas,understand that,but is there really many of them?!...actually,most people adopt ethical principles only superficially,without understanding the logic behind them,..and eventually,they do not really apply them. when I urge people to think about the collapse and study it,I only want them to avoid another more terrifying kind of thinking that would come later,..the question now is:how logical and reasonable will be the ideas that will cause the shock??...with every day of delay in putting all our effort in studying the subject,the scenario of superstitions and complete confusion will be inevitable,..everything will spin out of control,but the most destructive will be the mental confusion,it will be so strong that it will cause the spread of sudden death,..at this point it will be too late to bring people back to logical thinking,and the speed of panic and death will accelerate. now,do we really still have a chance for conscious awareness ?? I am afraid that the failure is becoming more obvious every day,we are approaching the worst case scenario with very rapid steps,...consider yourself lucky that your are reading about the collapse and thinking logically about it,...be sure that no matter how my words are painful and shocking,it is much better for you than being part of the worst case scenario
